Belarus: A Key Actor Behind the War
An analysis by Csilla Fedinec in the April 23 issue of Jelen.
In Russia’s war-related and broader geopolitical ambitions, a clear intention emerges to restore its influence over the post-Soviet space. This is not merely a matter of historical nostalgia or ideological aspiration, but a process driven by a highly concrete strategic logic, aimed at the military and political reintegration of the former Soviet region. Within this system, particular importance is assigned to those states whose geographic location, military infrastructure, or political orientation enables them to play a key role. In this context, Belarus and Ukraine assume closely interconnected yet distinct roles: while Ukraine has become the focal point of the conflict through its armed resistance, Belarus has emerged as a less visible but strategically decisive supporting actor.
The significance of Belarus lies in the fact that it does not appear as an independent belligerent, but rather as a space that enables the extension of Russian military presence. This role is particularly important for the dynamics of the war, as it forms a kind of intermediate zone between Russia and NATO’s eastern flank, while also providing direct access to northern Ukraine

